Growing Asian American, Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander voters – Key to victory in swing states

By Marivir Montebon

New York – The fastest growing electoral demographic, the Asian American, Hawaiian, and Pacific Islanders (AAHPI), could determine the crucial number of votes in the seven battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania to win the national elections in November.

According to Michigan-based Shekar Narasimhan, founder and chairman of the AAPI Victory Fund, the AAHPI electorate, now estimated to be 15 million, is not only a significant vote but “the reason for victory.”

Shekar Narasimhan claims that Asian, Hawaiin, and Pacific island votes may be the reason for victory in the swing states.

Narasimhan spoke during the weekly national media conference organized by the San Francisco-based Ethnic Media Services (EMS) on September 8, 2024.

There are 1.75 million eligible AAHPI voters in the seven battleground states. The total victory margin for these states, explained Narasimhan, required some 385,000 votes (2020 election figures), which is hypothetically attainable with the number of AAHPI voters.

Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin needed 45,000 votes for a victory margin in the 2020 election and the AAHPI voters which comprised 3% of each state had been crucial in that victory, said Narasimhan.

“There is excitement in the elections for AAHPI with Vice President Harris identifying with her Indian roots. But we must find the voters and talk to them about issues that matter to them,” cautioned Narasimhan.  

Michigan, according to Narasimhan, has the fastest growing diverse south Asian communities which was not reached by local campaigns in 2020. “There are many low information voters. Local candidates must show up and talk to us,” he said.

Seshadri: Local elections matter too. 

In Pennsylvania, Mohan Seshadri, said that in 2020, the Asian voters doubled in number which ensured the victory of Biden.  Seshadri, the executive director of the Asian Pacific Islander Political Alliance, noted that Pennsylvania is the battleground of all battleground states. In 2022, his group launched a whole year contact program for voter education and issue mobilization.

Seshadri noted that Pennsylvania has flipped itself as a blue state with the relentless effort of reaching out to communities. “Local elections matter too. And we are laser focused on issues like saving our Chinatown, for example.”

Research conducted by the APIA Vote in April and May 2024, noted a 1.8% increase of voters with ages 18 years and older, and US citizens. In Georgia, there were 140,000 AAHPI voters which was triple the number of votes needed by President Biden to win the electoral votes. Biden won in the 2020 elections with less than 12,000 votes, or thrice the margin of victory with the number of AAHPI voters at 39,000.

Christine Chen: Voter education is important. 

In the research, the AAHPI voters identified the priority issues on job security, inflation, and safety. Second level issues included education, social security, and national security, said APIA Vote executive director Christine Chen.

Forty-two percent of the AAHPI noted to be voting as Democrats (majority identify themselves with Chinese, Indian, and Japanese heritage), 31% as independent, and 22% Republican.

Dr. Tung Nguyen, president of the Progressive Vietnamese American Organization (PIVOT), said that there is a shift in the Vietnamese electorate. “It may be an outdated observation that the Vietnamese are the most conservative among South Asians. The moderates are just quiet,” he said.

Dr. Tung Nguyen: I trust voters as long as they get accurate information.

Nguyen added that the rampant disinformation in their community may have accounted for the conservativism of many Vietnamese voters. His office has conducted massive information campaign on issues which is translated into Vietnamese.

In some focused group discussions, Nguyen said that many young Vietnamese are rooting for Harris but are holding back because of the war in Gaza.

Professor James Zarsadiaz, associate professor of History and Director of the Yuchengco Philippine Studies Program at the University of San Francisco, noted that conservatism among Asians took a turning point in 1990s with the groundswell support for Pres. Bush and the rise of Newt Gingrich.

Prof. James Zarsadiaz: Hear the conservatives of AAHPI even if we don't agree, it is helpful to understand where voters are and generate legislation. 

“Many Asians were turned off by the issues on abortion, education, and immigration,” he explained.

In the 2000s, Republicanism declined, and Democratic parties reached out to communities and appointed Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders to public office, reinvigorating liberal policies and programs.

Republican strategist Rina Shah pointed out that 40 percent of AAHPI consider themselves as independent, citing a 2024 Pew Research with concerns on immigration, economic reforms, education, and equity.

Rinah Shah: We are a young democracy and we are here to make it work.

She opined that while there is a growing support for Harris-Walz in the national election, many independent voters may still choose local Republican candidates because of the prevalent conservative culture in the Midwest, for instance.  

Shah serves on the advisory board of the Renew Democracy Initiative. “We are a young democracy, and we are here to make it work. Everybody must be participating, here journalism is crucial.”

Chen meanwhile reminded the public to register to vote as the first step in public engagement. September 17 is marked as the National Voter Registration Day. “Voters are motivated, but we need correct information to fight back disinformation,” she quipped. #